Abka

https://comments.deviantart.com/4/18041619/4613652182

It starts with a culture living in southeast Russia, and they are culturally between Chinese and the native peoples that live north of the border. I am inclined to connect them to the Jurchens (though they would not be Jurchens; maybe a brother culture or something). And they are more than just a people; they would have their own traditions, and religion. They would have a pseudo-religious leader figure, like a Dalai Lama.

They weren't very influential throughout history. Being a minority culture in their own country, and not very inclined to stir up trouble. And that changed at one point (I'm inclined to say with the consolidation of control over the region by the Russian Empire in the 19th century), when their religious leader was banished. He then lived in China, in exile, and the people started getting less pacifistic over time. After a couple decades, it turned into a Chechnya situation, or a Forsworn situation if that's your fancy.

Then come 1912. End of the Qing dynasty, end of dragon worship, and lotsa Chinese dragons fled the country. That's where the aforementioned religious leader figure comes in. He rallies the ethnically similar Chinese to his cause, and they go to the area of the aforementioned people. Their population doubles, and while the people Sinicises, they are also suddenly a majority, and their leader sits down with the Russian government. Independence is too far-fetched, but he agrees to make them an autonomous okrug within the Russian Empire; later the Russian SSR. They become a province of Russia with a lot of autonomy, similar to the existing okrugs.

And then, in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapses, they declare independence once more and are this time able to keep it. So from that moment on you have a Russo-Jurchen-Chinese multi-ethnic state in the Russian Far East, led by a dynasty.

And here's where I would bring it later in the timeline. In the future, they would manage to conquer quite a lot of Siberia. They are already multi-ethnic, but with all the new local peoples in their midst, that all want equal representation, the nation devolves into a HRE-like state. Very decentralised, and very disorderly. But powerful enough when focused to become a foil to Indomalaya.

Here's the tl;dr:

Pacifistic Jurchens led by a Dalai Lama -> Dalai Lama exiled, the people turn into Forsworn-> Dalai Lama returns with a couple million Chinese, they make a deal to become an autonomous part of Russia -> becomes independent in 1991 -> becomes a HRE-equivalent in the long term.

Oh, and that Dalai Lama can be called Linzhi. But the nation itself would need a different name.